× DATA & METHODOLOGY
Settings VersionClassic Simpler Your choice is saved on this device.
Data & methodology Connected MLB's schedule, probable pitchers, game roster, stadium/day-night history, season game logs, handedness splits and career batter-versus-pitcher records are fetched when you open the app. Open-Meteo supplies outdoor first-pitch forecasts using MLB stadium coordinates. Pitch-type matchup details use MLB play-by-play: the starter’s latest five qualifying starts and the batter’s latest 30 qualifying games, filtered by pitcher handedness when known. Pitch usage counts all pitches, while batter results use each plate appearance’s final pitch. These recent samples are descriptive and do not change shortlist ranking. Roof status is not verified. Context data refreshes after a 15-minute cache. The schedule refreshes every minute while visible. Missing starters are checked against MLB’s game feed, then ESPN’s same-date scoreboard; names are resolved back to MLB player IDs on the matching team. Final, in-progress, cancelled, postponed, suspended, delayed and already-started games are excluded. A failed refresh removes actionable results until the feed recovers.
Recent hit rates Regular-season game logs are deduplicated by game ID. Missing values withhold the affected hit rate instead of substituting older games. Game logs include dates before the selected matchup, capped at yesterday in Eastern time. Only games verified final on MLB’s regular-season schedule qualify. Pitcher results use starts only; batter results require a plate appearance. Last 5, last 10, last 30 and season use the actual number of qualifying games, shown next to each percentage. Season means all qualifying current-season games before the cutoff, including after a team change. Less than 10 games is marked a small sample. These are historical frequencies, not forecasts.
Projected lineups Before a full MLB lineup is posted, projections use active-roster hitters’ weighted starting frequency and batting slots from the last five available completed team lineups. Substitutes are excluded from those starting orders. Projections may be incomplete and do not account for unpublished injuries, rest plans or platoon decisions. They never set a player’s confirmed status; the posted MLB order replaces them on the next roster refresh. Projected-lineup matchup totals are labeled unconfirmed.
Expanded matchup research My Picks, team cards and player details include first-pitch weather, the starter’s current-season record against the opposing team, the listed lineup’s career batter-versus-pitcher totals, and recent offense results against the starter’s pitch types, filtered by handedness when known. Pitch records use five starter appearances and ten recent team games. Missing games, partial lineups and small samples are labeled. These are descriptive research inputs, not numerical adjustments to the estimate. Open a matchup panel to load current evidence; My Picks loads its panels automatically.
Diamond rating The decimal rating out of 10 is an experimental pick-appeal score, separate from hit probability: 60% estimated hit chance, 25% sample size (full credit at 60 outcomes), and 15% agreement between historical and market estimates. Unverified price entries lose 0.6 points and reference prices lose 1 point. No rating is shown without complete historical data. Rough and cracked stones indicate weaker evidence; brighter diamonds indicate higher ratings. Even 10/10 is not a guaranteed result. Matchup research currently adds context, not numerical rating adjustments.
Hit chance estimates & My Picks Every priced selection shows an experimental estimated hit chance, separate from historical hit rates. Same-book opposite prices are normalized when available; otherwise the market baseline includes bookmaker margin. Up to 25% comes from season outcomes, with recent 30 games at full weight and older games at half weight, plus a two-game market prior. The remaining weight comes from the market. Historical weight decreases below 30 games; incomplete histories use only the market. This heuristic has not been backtested or calibrated. It is not Dimers data and does not independently model weather, pitch mix, injuries, bullpen availability or lineup changes. Probabilities are conditional on the bet standing and settling without a push.
My Picks ranks these estimates across eligible player and team markets, independently of Player props filters. It requires a current exact price from −300 to −100 or +100 to +600 and at least 30 complete batter/team games or 10 pitcher starts. Your mix prioritizes pitcher strikeout/outs overs with estimated chances of at least 50%, then other overs and team picks. One result per player, one team result per game, one per prop/side and at most one under keep it varied. Preferences change selection, never the estimated percentages. Manual prices are labeled unverified. Missing or expired prices are excluded.
Alternate lines 3+ strikeouts means at least 3, equivalent to over 2.5. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. Hit rates recalculate for each cutoff. These are research thresholds—not a claim that DraftKings offers every displayed line. Sportsbook void and settlement rules still apply.
Betting splits Every selection shows separate bet-count and money-share fields. No automatic splits feed is connected. Missing figures display a dash; manually entered figures are unverified, exact-selection observations that expire after 15 minutes. They are never derived from prices, historical hit rates or most-bet rankings, and do not influence My Picks. Coverage and update times depend on the source; percentages are not win probabilities.
What is not connected Direct DraftKings feeds, guaranteed coverage of every alternate line, confirmed bet availability, a validated prediction model, injuries, umpire and bullpen data are not connected. No synthetic odds or matchup stats are shown.
The Odds API supports MLB player and alternate markets. ScoresAndOdds supplies public comparison prices for supported player markets. Bare prices without an explicit threshold are withheld. Today-only coverage is matched to an unambiguous MLB matchup and player; doubleheaders are withheld unless uniquely identified. Source prices can compete with game lines in My Picks. Manual prices are never labeled live or verified. −400 has an 80% break-even probability; that is not proof of an 80% actual win chance.
My Parlay Reported multi-book player prices, manual player prices and reported sportsbook team prices can be saved to My Parlay, with favorites limited to −600 and underdogs to +600. Changed or unavailable reported prices pause calculations until the selection is reviewed and re-added. Confirm prices with your sportsbook. They are saved on this device with the selected line and game. Started or expired legs cannot be priced. Same-game combinations require a sportsbook quote. No joint win probability is estimated and no bet is placed.
Portraits Five featured players per team have cartoon portraits: three hitters selected by season OPS (at least 100 plate appearances where available) and two pitchers by strikeouts from the active roster at creation. This is a featured selection, not an official best-player ranking. The original six portraits are preserved. Other players use initials. Cartoon uniforms are artwork, not current roster information.