× DATA & METHODOLOGY
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Data & methodology Connected MLB's schedule, probable pitchers, game roster, stadium/day-night history, season game logs, handedness splits and career batter-versus-pitcher records are fetched when you open the app. Open-Meteo supplies outdoor first-pitch forecasts using MLB stadium coordinates. Pitch-type matchup details use MLB play-by-play: the starter’s latest five qualifying starts and the batter’s latest 30 qualifying games, filtered by pitcher handedness when known. Pitch usage counts all pitches, while batter results use each plate appearance’s final pitch. Reliable pitch-type samples directly influence the matchup score, with sample-size and coverage checks. Missing inputs receive no inferred advantage. Roof status is not verified. Context data refreshes after a 15-minute cache. The schedule refreshes every minute while visible. Missing starters are checked against MLB’s game feed, then ESPN’s same-date scoreboard; names are resolved back to MLB player IDs on the matching team. Final, in-progress, cancelled, postponed, suspended, delayed and already-started games are excluded. A failed refresh removes actionable results until the feed recovers.
Recent hit rates Regular-season and postseason game logs are deduplicated by game ID. Missing values withhold the affected hit rate instead of substituting older games. Game logs include dates before the selected matchup, capped at yesterday in Eastern time. Only games verified final on MLB’s regular-season or postseason schedule qualify. Pitcher results use starts only; batter results require a plate appearance. Last 5, last 10, last 30 and season use the actual number of qualifying games, shown next to each percentage. Season means all qualifying current-season games before the cutoff, including after a team change. Less than 10 games is marked a small sample. These are historical frequencies, not forecasts.
Projected lineups Before a full MLB lineup is posted, projections use active-roster hitters’ weighted starting frequency and batting slots from the last five available completed team lineups. Substitutes are excluded from those starting orders. Projections may be incomplete and do not account for unpublished injuries, rest plans or platoon decisions. They never set a player’s confirmed status; the posted MLB order replaces them on the next roster refresh. Projected-lineup matchup totals are labeled unconfirmed.
Player market coverage & rating labels Player props and Diamond’s Top 5 share the mapped price inventory. The coverage panel reports all 15 requested markets, source/matched/eligible counts and both sides; zero pitcher prices on an upcoming slate is incomplete coverage. ScoresAndOdds supplies the primary lines. Public PropCruncher best-line pages supplement batter strikeouts, walks and runs where explicit current-date quotes are displayed; no opposite price is inferred, and public coverage may be limited. Diamond’s top player props uses the reviewed selection score with up to six varied players. Diamond’s Top 5 remains five. Player-board Diamond ratings, Diamond’s top player props and Diamond’s Top 5 use the same completed matchup review. Props that do not pass recommendation checks keep their completed research rating. Pending reviews wait for matchup evidence; no probability-only rating is substituted. Today’s Edge shows the highest completed Diamond rating across all priced board markets, independent of board filters, and opens its exact pick. Market overview cycles through pitcher and hitter categories without hiding lower-ranked markets.
Expanded matchup research Diamond’s Top 5, team cards and player details include first-pitch weather, the starter’s current-season record against the opposing team, the listed lineup’s career batter-versus-pitcher totals, and recent offense results against the starter’s pitch types, filtered by handedness when known. Pitch records use five starter appearances and ten recent team games. Missing games, partial lineups and small samples are labeled. These are descriptive research inputs; the shared Diamond rating uses them in its selection heuristic, not as invented adjustments to the displayed hit percentage. Open a matchup panel to load current evidence; Diamond’s Top 5 loads its panels automatically.
Postseason theme Postseason logo: MLB, via SportsLogos.Net . Original trophy backdrop created for Diamond Prop Labs. The seasonal theme ends when MLB confirms the World Series winner.
Postseason statistics Recent windows and season totals include completed regular-season and postseason games, excluding spring training and exhibitions. Postseason-only hit rates are shown separately on player cards. Histories stop before the selected game date or today, whichever is earlier, to prevent partial-game and future-data leakage.
Quality of contact Verified exit velocity, hard-hit rate (95+ mph), and hard-hit outs are shown for the last 5, 10 and 30 games. Only complete, sufficiently tracked samples can modestly adjust recent-form credit for hits and total bases. These measurements do not replace actual outcomes or represent xBA/xSLG. Missing tracking gets no score adjustment.
Diamond rating Diamond v7 is a transparent research rating, not a win probability. It weights matchup 50%, role/workload 20%, recent form relative to line difficulty 10%, price value 10%, evidence quality 5%, and hit probability 5%. Last-5/10/30 results are stabilized toward the season rate with 4/4/6 prior observations; season is unchanged. Known risks and uncertainty subtract points. Evidence depth reaches full credit at 30 pitcher starts or 80 hitter/team outcomes, then scales down for missing research. An 8+ diamond requires strong evidence, dependable playing time, favorable matchup support and limited risk; 9+ requires exceptional evidence and matchup support. Integer-line push protection contributes at most 0.2 points. Player cards, team cards, the top-player strip and Diamond’s Top 5 use the same reviewed score. Completed reviews retain their Diamond rating even when excluded from the Top 5. Incomplete reviews show “Awaiting matchup review” while retaining their separately labeled hit estimate. No baseline or provisional score substitutes for the shared rating. The expandable scorecard shows each contribution and deduction. This is not a trained or calibrated model.
Hit chance estimates & Diamond’s Top 5 Every priced selection shows an experimental estimated hit chance, separate from historical hit rates. Same-book opposite prices are normalized when available; otherwise the market baseline includes bookmaker margin. Up to 25% comes from season outcomes, with recent 30 games at full weight and older games at half weight, plus a two-game market prior. The remaining weight comes from the market. Historical weight decreases below 30 games; incomplete histories use only the market. This heuristic has not been backtested or calibrated. It is not Dimers data and does not independently model weather, pitch mix, injuries, bullpen availability or lineup changes. Probabilities are conditional on the bet standing and settling without a push.
Diamond’s Top 5 selects up to five reviewed picks. It compares matchup evidence (50%), role/workload (20%), recent form relative to line difficulty (10%), exact-line value (10%), hit probability (5%) and evidence quality (5%). These are disclosed heuristic weights, not a trained model or a proven edge. It compares priced pitcher Ks, outs, hits, walks and earned runs; simple hitter hit/single lines; and game/team markets. Hitter unders must earn their place through matchup evidence, like every other side. Higher-dependency hitter lines need stronger corroboration. The first pass prefers at most two per market and two hitter unders, and limits shared game exposure. On small slates those diversity preferences can relax to fill five distinct selections; player duplication and opposite sides of the same game market remain excluded. Reported exact prices only: −300 to −100 or +100 to +600. Recent form uses 30/35/20/15 weights for last 5/10/30/season; detected role changes use 45/35/15/5. Shortened outings and relief-role changes exclude counting-stat overs. Same-game dependencies are limited unless research is unusually strong. Price verdicts compare the uncalibrated probability with break-even; estimates below break-even are labeled lower-confidence alternatives if included to fill the shortlist. Integer-line pushes are excluded from win rates and receive a small protection credit (at most 0.2 rating points). Observed same-book price history is stored in this browser, not a complete opening-line feed. Missing inputs reduce confidence; absent roster players and insufficient matchup evidence can exclude a pick.
Alternate lines 3+ strikeouts means at least 3, equivalent to over 2.5. Under 2.5 means 2 or fewer. Hit rates recalculate for each cutoff. These are research thresholds—not a claim that DraftKings offers every displayed line. Sportsbook void and settlement rules still apply.
Betting splits Team and game selections show separate bet-count and money-share fields. Public game-market splits come from SportsBettingDime with source update times. Moneyline shares identify the team; total/run-line shares are explicitly market-wide because the source does not specify a threshold. Player-prop betting-share fields are omitted. Unavailable percentage fields are hidden; manually entered figures are unverified, exact-selection observations that expire after 15 minutes. They are never derived from prices, historical hit rates or most-bet rankings, and do not influence Diamond’s Top 5. Coverage and update times depend on the source; percentages are not win probabilities.
What is not connected Direct DraftKings feeds, guaranteed coverage of every alternate line, confirmed bet availability, a validated prediction model, a comprehensive injury/pitch-limit feed and umpire data are not connected. Diamond’s Top 5 checks active-roster status, recent official injury/rehab transactions and recent bullpen box-score usage; these do not establish medical clearance or confirmed bullpen availability. No synthetic odds or matchup stats are shown.
The Odds API supports MLB player and alternate markets. ScoresAndOdds supplies public comparison prices for supported player markets. Bare prices without an explicit threshold are withheld. Upcoming-date prices are read from dated game pages and matched by start time, teams and player. Undated daily prices are never carried into another day. Doubleheaders are withheld unless uniquely identified. Source prices can compete with game lines in Diamond’s Top 5. Manual prices are never labeled live or verified. −400 has an 80% break-even probability; that is not proof of an 80% actual win chance.
My Parlay Reported multi-book player prices, manual player prices and reported sportsbook team prices can be saved to My Parlay, with favorites limited to −600 and underdogs to +600. Changed or unavailable reported prices pause calculations until the selection is reviewed and re-added. Confirm prices with your sportsbook. They are saved on this device with the selected line and game. Started or expired legs cannot be priced. Same-game combined odds and payouts are unadjusted estimates from multiplying the individual odds; actual sportsbook pricing may differ. No joint win probability is estimated and no bet is placed.
Portraits Five featured players per team have cartoon portraits: three hitters selected by season OPS (at least 100 plate appearances where available) and two pitchers by strikeouts from the active roster at creation. This is a featured selection, not an official best-player ranking. The original six portraits are preserved. Other players use initials. Cartoon uniforms are artwork, not current roster information.
